The three major operators' first-quarter earnings reports were released one after another. According to the data, in terms of net profit, the three major operators have experienced large fluctuations in the past five quarters, all reaching the lowest in the fourth quarter of 2017, but they are all in the first quarter of 2018. Go up and get out of the net to lower the valley.
Communication experts pointed out that under the background of "speed-up and fee reduction", China's three major operators urgently need to reduce network operation and maintenance costs, leaving room for tariff reduction. In order to solve this problem, 2G, 3G clear frequency retreat is particularly important.
However, both operators and consumers must realize that this imperative work is difficult to achieve in one step. There are large differences in inter-operator networks, different upgrade paths, and user experiences in remote areas and the elderly. Don't let the slow and other complex problems remain to be solved.
1. Q1 financial report reveals major adjustments in the business direction of the three major operatorsThe Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has confirmed again that it will cancel the traffic roaming fee as scheduled on July 1, and will continue to implement the home broadband discount. How to maintain the bright financial data while further improving the speed and reduce the fee has become the most important issue for the three major operators in 2018.
After the announcement of the Q1 financial report, China Unicom will disclose that it will invest more than 8 billion yuan in 2018, and cooperate with various manufacturers and government departments to carry out precise poverty alleviation and care activities for 2G user groups. It is hoped that 40 million 2G users will be able to change in 2018. machine. China Unicom explained: "In order to better serve the future network development, we are ready to migrate 2G and 3G network users to 4G networks and 5G networks, release backward spectrum resources and increase network thickness and capacity."
In fact, at the end of January this year, China Unicom has been actively deploying 2G networks in many provinces and cities. However, China Mobile plans to vacate the 3G band before VoLTE has completed its full replacement, and retains 2G and 4G networks, thus avoiding multi-network networking and achieving good dual-network dual-good.
China Telecom realized the re-cultivation of the 800M frequency band last year. According to the network load, the original user 2G, 3G 800M frequency band was converted to 4G, Internet of Things and so on.
Pave the way for 5G, it is imperative to clear 2G/3G networkWhy are operators so eager to clear 2G or even 3G networks? Because they can help them to reduce operating costs to a large extent.
Some operators pointed out that compared with 4G and 5G, 2G technology with more than 20 years of history is obviously backward, which not only affects the user experience. The simultaneous operation of 2G/3G/4G in the network is also a heavy cost burden for operators.
Taking China Mobile as an example, in the first half of last year, depreciation and maintenance fees accounted for 34.8% of total revenue. At the same time, with the continuous optimization of 3G/4G coverage, the traffic and utilization rate of 2G networks are declining, and the three major operators have begun to reduce the related assets of 2G networks. China Mobile’s 2017 financial report shows that its 2G network assets have an impairment loss of RMB 10.4 billion.
Secondly, although 2G networks are relatively outdated, they still occupy some relatively high-quality network bands, such as low-frequency 800MHz/900MHz with wide signal coverage and strong penetration. If these bands can be applied to 4G or 5G networks, operators will save a lot of base station construction costs.
In addition, operators are reluctant to say the reason, compared to 4G users, 2G users generally have lower consumption, ARPU (monthly consumption) is even less than 1/3 of 4G users. If you can convert this part of 2G users into 4G users, you can increase revenue through traffic management, and on the other hand, you can increase user stickiness through traffic services and avoid loss.
2. The question is coming. Is Guan 2G or Guan 3G off?Unlike most countries and regions in the world, Chinese operators are still facing a problem of clearing 2G or 3G.
The 4G network is mainly used to carry data transmission, and the 2G network actually carries voice calls (this is why some netizens reflect that 4G signals are clearly displayed, and the reason why a call is made into a 2G signal), and 3G itself belongs to the upgrade of 2G networks. Version can replace the status of 2G network.
In this way, China Unicom, which has mature WCDMA 3G technology and network, has a relatively simple job of “replacement and replacement†and can directly clear the 2G GSM network. Moreover, China Unicom's full 2G user data is estimated to be about 6 million, which is the least among the three, which is relatively easy to accomplish. China Unicom has stated that technically, its 2G network retreat can be realized in a short time.
For China Mobile, due to some technical defects, its unique TD-SCDMA standard 3G network utilization is not high. With the full coverage of TD-LTE networks, the network utilization of TD-SCDMA is still declining. China Mobile is better off closing its 3G network. On April 3 this year, China Mobile was granted an FDD license, but the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has not issued a notice to permit the use of China Mobile's 2G frequency for 4G network construction. This means that China Mobile's 2G network withdrawal frequency can only be used for the Internet of Things. Not 4G business.
China Telecom, on the other hand, said on the one hand that the 2G network retreat plan will depend on the construction of the VoLTE network. On the other hand, it announced that it will officially commercialize VoLTE in ten provinces and cities including Guangdong, thus accelerating the retreat of 2G and 3G users. network.
3. What posture does the old net use to exit the stage? User experience and rights protection are the most important jobsIt is reported that at the end of 2017, there are still 1.57 million 2G base stations, 290 million 2G users, and massive IoT devices that rely on 2G networks. 2G has a long way to go.
Communication expert Fu Liang said that it is impossible for 2G users to have no impact at all.
In terms of users, the upgrade process of 2G users will be accompanied by some "pain".
First of all, if users want to use 4G network, existing 2G mobile phones will be eliminated. For those who do not need to enjoy fast Internet access, or only need basic call function, the 100-yuan "senior machine" and function machine must be upgraded. For the 4G mobile phone that is still a thousand yuan machine. Second is the rise in mobile phone tariffs. Although the three major operators are further implementing the policy of “speeding up and reducing feesâ€, the cost of 3G and 4G networks will still be much higher than the previous cheap 2G packages.
In addition, for some remote areas, due to insufficient deployment of base stations, after switching to 3G or 4G networks, there may be problems with signal degradation.
Fu Liang believes that it is more reasonable for telecom operators to submit a network application and announce the network closing schedule after the approval of the competent authorities (the closing time is at least one year after the announcement). At the same time, the 4G terminal or other means can be used to complete the upgrade from 2G or 3G network to 4G without affecting the use. If the user refuses to upgrade, the telecom operator can also cancel the contract and no longer provide services.
Ma Hongbing, general manager of China Unicom Operation and Maintenance Department, which started the 2G network frequency reduction first, said, “China Unicom has introduced free card replacement, preferential purchases and traffic subsidies, and it does not affect the user’s feelings and quality during the transfer process. This is very important. ."
There are also operators that launched a $399 VoLTE custom terminal and a low-cost tariff package to attract users who are more sensitive to price.
4, the future is close at hand 5G commercial China speeding operators fast horse whipIf the three major operators retired 2G/3G networks are still rhythmical and planned, then there seems to be only one rhythm for their development of 5G: faster than anyone else.
On April 22, according to Xinhua News Agency, the National Development and Reform Commission and other relevant departments have approved the three major operators to pilot the construction of 5G networks in some cities such as Beijing. After that, the domestic 5G construction news was frequently transmitted, and the three major operators' 5G commercial time collectively advanced and tended to be consistent: pre-commercial in 2019 and officially commercialized in 2020.
China Unicom's currently announced 5G pilot city is the largest among the three operators, reaching 16 and Unicom plans to achieve 5G commercialization by 2020.
Telecommunications can be said to be the most active operator in response to the “Millennium Planâ€, and the first pilot cities included Xiong’an. The plan for telecommunications is “6+6â€, which means that six pilot cities will be launched first, and the remaining six will be announced later.
There are five 5G pilot cities currently identified by mobile, and the number is not as good as the number of competitors. However, Mobile has revealed a more specific 5G base station construction plan, which will build 100 5G base stations in each of the five cities. Among the first- and second-tier cities, Shanghai has become the only city selected by the three major operators, and Guangzhou has only piloted smart logistics.
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