Photovoltaic Grid-Connected Inverters Become Profitable Highlands Under Industrial Dilemma

Photovoltaic (PV) is a new type of power generation system that uses the photovoltaic effect of semiconductor materials of solar cells to directly convert solar radiation energy into electrical energy. It has two modes: independent operation and grid-connected operation. China's current photovoltaic industry mainly refers to the crystalline silicon solar cell industry, and the photovoltaic industry has become the fastest-growing industry after China's renewable energy industry relays wind power generation.

The rapid development of China's photovoltaic manufacturing industry benefits from the European PV market. According to the data provided by Shangpu Consulting, China's PV cell production in 2010 has exceeded 50% of the global output. At present, there are dozens of photovoltaic companies listed separately at home and abroad. According to estimates, the industry's annual output value is about 300 billion yuan, and the number of direct employees is about 300,000.

China's photovoltaic industry has embarked on a rapid development path and has mastered key process technologies including solar cell manufacturing and polysilicon production. The equipment and major raw materials have gradually become domestically produced, the industrial scale has expanded rapidly, the industrial chain has been continuously improved, and manufacturing costs have continued to decline. With strong international competitiveness.

Policy promotion, photovoltaic inverter market is expected to start photovoltaic inverter is the core power adjustment device of the photovoltaic system, occupying the system cost ratio is between 10-15%, has a higher technical content, the current global leading SMA occupy a market share of 44 %, the second tier of four companies combined to occupy 32% of the market, and the remaining more than 150 companies split the rest of the market.

Although the ex-factory price of PV inverters fell by about 11% in 2010, revenues more than doubled and exceeded US$5 million for the first time. In the long run, despite the fact that price decline will continue, coupled with changes in the industrial structure, positive growth is expected to continue and the market size will double again in the next five years.

Recently, four departments including the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the National Energy Administration jointly held a meeting. They clearly stated that they must increase policy support, vigorously promote the large-scale application of domestic photovoltaic power generation, and strive to apply domestically every year after 2012. The scale is not less than 1000 MW.

Under the promotion of policies, the proportion of photovoltaic grid-connected networks is expected to increase, and the photovoltaic inverter market is expected to start. The application categories of photovoltaic systems include special and remote area applications, rural applications, photovoltaic grid-connected generation, solar photovoltaic lighting, solar energy commodities, and others. China's current grid-connected power generation is still very small, less than 10%, and more than 90% are independent photovoltaic systems. The current cost of grid-connected photovoltaic power generation is the lowest. In the past three years, the proportion of grid-connected photovoltaic systems in Europe reached 99%. The concentrated photovoltaic power generation projects are mainly in high-tech parks and economic development zones. It is expected that the proportion of grid-connected PV power generation will be greatly increased, and thus the domestic photovoltaic inverter market is expected to start. If the new installed capacity in 2011 and 2012 is 1000MW, 50% is connected to the grid and the price is measured at 3 yuan per watt, the market capacity of domestic PV inverters will be about 1.5 billion yuan in the next two years. With the reduction of power generation costs, the new capacity of photovoltaic inverters is expected to double after 2012. It is estimated that by 2014, the global photovoltaic inverter market will reach 8.5 billion U.S. dollars, with an annual comprehensive growth rate of nearly 25%.

Despite overproduction, the global inverter market will continue to strengthen. Market research company IMS emphasized in its survey results that the photovoltaic inverter market experienced a long-term supply shortage to capacity in the 12 months of 2010 A serious excess of change. According to the market research company, as of January of this year, the inventory in the fourth quarter of 2010 and the beginning of the new year has reached a record high level. The latest report from IMS Research also found that the global PV inverter market grew by 140% in 2010, mainly driven by core European markets such as Germany, Italy, the Czech Republic and France. Despite the industry's concerns about overcapacity, the global PV inverter market can still reach US$8.5 billion in 2014, with an average annual increase of up to 25%.

In 2010, the output of inverters more than doubled and exceeded 30 GW. Given that more than 30 top suppliers have made plans for increasing production, production in 2011 is expected to increase by another 40%. As far as the current form is concerned, each supplier is extremely reluctant to stage the supply shortage in 2009 again, making it unable to meet the requirements of customers when the market is once again rising sharply.

There may be a shift in demand trends in 2011. In 2010, the biggest driver of growth for the entire industry was the small commercial market from Germany. The newly installed capacity has reached 4 GW. However, the market forecast for 2011 shows that the largest new installations will come from the United States, Canada and China. At the same time, emerging markets such as the United Kingdom and India will also bring great potential opportunities for industrial development.

Photovoltaic inverter usher in the development period of gold As China's solar terminal market started late, domestic photovoltaic inverter manufacturers have a smaller scale, and domestic photovoltaic inverters have certain gaps in terms of process and performance stability from imported products.

The domestic photovoltaic installation market mainly comes from the large-scale photovoltaic demonstration power station and the "Golden Sun demonstration project" of the Energy Bureau. In 2010, the total number of the second batch of tenders for the National Energy Administration was 280 MW, a total of 13 projects. The Golden Sun demonstration project grants a 50% subsidy to key equipment (photovoltaic modules, inverters, and reserve batteries) at the bid-winning agreement price, and other expenses are given a fixed subsidy of 4 yuan/W and 6 yuan/W according to different project types. From this calculation, the construction cost of the Golden Sun demonstration project power station is about 7-8 yuan/W, and the investment cost can be recovered from 2010 to 2011. Under the Golden Sun demonstration project, domestic photovoltaic power plants have a certain degree of profitability and a high market enthusiasm.

In addition, on December 2, 2010, the four departments jointly announced that they will use financial subsidies, "solar roof" projects and other initiatives to strongly promote the large-scale application of photovoltaic power generation in China, and strive to complete 1,000 MW of new installed capacity in 2012 to ensure the realization of 2020 20GW cumulative installed target.

The photovoltaic installation market in China is facing an inflection point and is about to start. In 2010, the newly installed capacity of domestic photovoltaics was approximately 500MW, which was 3.5 times of the installed capacity of 140MW in 2009. We expect China's new installed capacity to approach 1GW in 2011 and 1.5GW in 2012. Based on the current price of 1.1 to 1.2 yuan per watt for PV inverters, the domestic PV inverter market will reach 1.1 billion and 1.7 billion respectively in the next two years. The domestic photovoltaic inverter entered the golden development period.

For domestic manufacturers, the production of photovoltaic inverters is only to purchase core components from major international suppliers such as Infineon, Ximenkang, Mitsubishi, and Fujitsu. As there is no need for complicated and expensive production equipment, the fixed investment is small, and the industry barriers to entry are not high. In the next 1 to 2 years, with the intensification of competition, companies with excellent technical skills and high cost control ability can finally come to the fore.

Domestic photovoltaic inverter manufacturers still need to work hard. In recent years, with the support of Spain, Germany, the United States, and Japan for their own photovoltaic industry policies, the sales of global photovoltaic power inverters have been increasing year by year, and inverters for photovoltaic power generation have entered. A fast-growing stage. However, at present, the global photovoltaic inverter market is divided by several major international giants. The pioneer of the European-style global photovoltaic market has a complete photovoltaic industry chain, and PV inverter technology is in the leading position in the world. SMA is the world's first and largest PV inverter manufacturer (Germany's market share is over 50%), which accounts for about one-third of the global market share. The second is Fronius. The world’s top seven manufacturers occupy nearly 70% of the market.

At present, the domestic market for grid-connected PV inverters is relatively small. There are many domestic manufacturers of inverters, but there are not many inverter manufacturers dedicated to photovoltaic power generation systems, but many domestic enterprises are already in the inverter industry. It has been researched for many years and already has a certain scale and competitiveness. However, there is still a big gap between the technology quality and scale of inverters and foreign companies. Currently, there are large-scale manufacturers such as Hefei Sunshine, Beijing Connaught Albert, and Beijing Cable. British, Zhicheng Champion, Nanjing Guanya, Shanghai Yingwei New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. and other companies. At present, the output of these companies for photovoltaic systems is increasing year by year.

Although the scale of the domestic market is small, the huge development space and potential for development of the photovoltaic power plant market in the future will give domestic companies a historic opportunity for development. At present, domestic photovoltaic inverters are mainly occupied by sunlight power, Ai Sima, KACO and other brands. Most foreign companies enter the domestic market through agency channels. The overall market share is not high due to the difficulty of after-sales service. According to the statistics in 2008, Hefei Sunshine Power Co., Ltd. occupies more than 70% of the market share of photovoltaic inverters, and almost all domestic high-power photovoltaic projects use domestic products.

From the technical point of view, domestic enterprises still have a certain gap with foreign advanced level in terms of conversion efficiency, structural technology, intelligence, and stability. At present, China is at the same level as foreign countries in terms of low-power inverter technology. On power grid-connected inverters, high-power grid-connected inverters still need further development.

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