In recent years, the topic of artificial intelligence has been hot. In some sci-fi movies, the development of artificial intelligence can not be suppressed, and become the terminator of human civilization. Some big cows, such as Bill Gates and Hawking, have warned about the development of artificial intelligence; but others believe that artificial intelligence is not a threat at this stage.
In 2014, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk tweeted: "Bostrom's "Superintelligence" is well worth reading. We need to be cautious about AI." In the same year, Cambridge University cosmologist Stephen Hawking In an interview with the BBC, "The development of full arTIficial intelligence may lead to the end of humanity." Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates also warned: "About AI, I am holding Cautious and skeptical."
With regard to how the end of the world brought about by AI will be unfolded, computer scientist Eliezer Yudkowsky said in the 2008 Global Catastrophic Risks: How likely is AI to develop from single-celled organisms to human intelligence in the future? What? He replied: "It is possible to form a physical brain. The speed of calculation is one million times that of the human brain. If the human brain accelerates, the subjective thinking of the year will be within 31 seconds. Once it's done, a thousand years will pass in eight and a half hours.†Yudkowsky believes that it would be too late if we didn't do it: “The time dimension of artificial intelligence is different from ours when your neurons are done. When you think about 'I should do this,' you have missed the opportunity."
Nick Bostrom, a philosopher at Oxford University, puts in his "Superintelligence" a so-called idea of ​​maximizing paper clips: an AI is designed to make a paper clip and is running out of its original After the supply of raw materials, it will utilize any available atoms within its reach, including humans. As he described in a 2003 paper, from then on, "first transform the entire planet, adding space to the paperclip manufacturing facility." In a short time, the entire universe consists of a paper clip and a paper clip maker.
I doubt this. First, all such doomsday scenarios involve a long series of "if-then" accidents, and failure at any point will be pushed to the so-called end of the world. Alan Winfield, a professor of electrical engineering at the University of Bristol in West England, said in an article in 2014: "If we succeed in building the same AI as humans, if AI is fully capable of working on it, Understand that if it succeeds in improving itself to become a super-smart AI, if this super AI starts to consume resources accidentally or maliciously, if we can't pull the plug and power off, then yes, we may have problems. This danger is not impossible. , is unlikely to happen."
Second, if you check according to the time period, you will find that the development of artificial intelligence is much lower than expected. As Google executive chairman Eric Schmidt responded to Musk and Hawking: "Do you think humans won't notice this? You don't think humans will shut down. These computers?†Google’s own DeepMind developed the concept of an AI off switch, dubbed the “big red buttonâ€, which can be used to take over the AI. As Baidu’s vice president, Andrew Ng, said (in response to Musk), “It’s like we’re not even on Mars, we’re worried that there’s going to be overpopulated on Mars.â€
Third, the AI's doomsday scenario is often based on a mismatch between natural intelligence and artificial intelligence. Steven Pinker, an experimental psychologist at Harvard University, clarified in his answer to the 2015 Edge.org annual question "What do you think about machine thinking?" "The AI ​​dystopia project projects a narrow alpha male psychology into the intellectual concept. They believe that superhuman intelligent robots will 'give up their masters or take over the world' as their development goals." Similarly, Pinker said, "Artificial intelligence will develop along the natural line of the female - can completely solve the problem, but not Will want to eliminate innocent or dominating civilization."
Fourth, it implies that the computer wants to do something (like turning the world into a paper clip) is equivalent to AI having emotions. As the scientific writer Michael Chorost said: “When AI really wants to do something, it will live in a universe of rewards and punishments, including punishment from our bad behavior.â€
Given the historically almost zero forecast rate for the end of the world, coupled with the slow development of artificial intelligence over the decades, we have had enough time to build fail-safe systems to prevent the end of the world from any such artificial intelligence.
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