In the past few days, I saw a good article in the Chinese version of Business Week, titled "B Plan for Uncovering BAT", which mainly discussed the positive layout of BAT in the B-side business after the C-side business developed to a certain stage. Situation, enterprise software, blockchain, big data... But the most important business is cloud computing. This article has drawn a conclusion through various analyses: cloud computing will become the market dominated by Ali and Tencent, and this is also the article. The focus to be discussed.
Cloud computing will definitely become a giant marketZhang Yuting, author of the article "B Plan for Uncovering BAT", believes that:
“In enterprise services, cloud computing is a business that can achieve flywheel growth. When the customer size is large enough, the marginal cost will decrease rapidly. However, not every Internet company has the strength to do cloud computing business. This market is huge because of the need. The infrastructure investment and globalization of the layout will eventually leave only a few giants."
At present, the main players in the market, there are only a few giants left, in one sentence is Ali, Tencent, and others. The article "Uncovering BAT's Plan B" states:
"Ali and Tencent are the earliest Internet companies in the cloud computing business. In January 2018, Alibaba announced the third quarter financial report data for the 2018 fiscal year. Cloud computing is the fastest growing business in Ali, showing a three-digit growth. In 2017, Alibaba Cloud's accumulated revenue reached 11.2 billion yuan. In August of the same year, Ali Financial reported that the number of paid users of cloud computing has exceeded 1 million. Tencent Cloud did not directly announce its revenue in the financial report, but according to the self-media According to the calculation of "Six Technology Sees", Tencent Cloud's annual revenue is expected to reach 10 billion yuan, which will be achieved in about two years."
Of course, the current cloud computing market has not been directly and completely divided by AT like the market such as take-out and payment. There are many non-giant cloud service providers in Jinshanyun, Xunlei.com, Cloud, Qingyun and so on. As stated in the article "Uncovering BAT's Plan B": "Although the days of startup cloud computing companies are not good under the attack of Internet companies, independent service providers still have their own value." Small and medium cloud service providers no longer focus on In the large and complete public cloud market, it is aimed at some specific application scenarios or industries such as the Internet of Things layout, and survive in the gap between the giants.
And there is reason to believe that in China's Internet industry is constantly concentrated through mergers and reorganizations, the cloud computing market will further concentrate through capital form, and the giants are already investing in acquisitions. For example, Tencent has invested in PaaS cloud service provider Lingque. When Tencent released its Q4 2017 and full-year earnings report, the outlook for 2018 is: “Looking ahead, we will adopt a more aggressive investment strategy to enhance online video, payment services, cloud services and artificial intelligence technologies and smart retail. In the cloud computing business, we will “expand our cloud infrastructure and strengthen the recruitment of talents to provide better service to our customers.†I think Tencent may also invest in mergers and acquisitions next. Potential small and medium cloud computing platform.
All in all, it is inevitable that the cloud computing market will become a giant market. In China, from the perspective of the company's market capitalization and eco-strategy, the two biggest giants are Ali and Tencent. According to data released by IDC last year, in China's IaaS market, Alibaba Cloud and Tencent Cloud's market share in the first half of the year has reached 57.2%. The market pattern of Alibaba Cloud and Tencent Cloud eventually forming a double giant is also a predictable outcome.
Why is the cloud computing only the giants able to play?Why is cloud computing only a giant to play? The reason for BusinessWeek is because "this market will only leave a few giants because of the huge infrastructure investment and globalization." However, it seems to me The answer is probably not the case.
A few days ago, there was a list of unicorns published in the name of the Ministry of Science and Technology. Cloud computing became a hot market like cultural entertainment and other circuits. Seven or eight unicorns were born. However, only Ali and Tencent currently provide comprehensive and A comprehensive public cloud computing service, rather than focusing on one or several sub-sectors, or only a few cloud computing service products, from the business map, the market is already concentrated in AT.
And AT can play the root cause of cloud computing, I think there are three main:
1. Cloud computing is not an independent business. It must rely on an ecosystem.
Whether it is Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Alibaba Cloud, Tencent Cloud, they all have one thing in common: not an independent business, not directly from 0 to 1, but a business that naturally evolves from the giant ecology, which means early stage The investment is relatively small, and there are natural customers - customers in the ecology, the market cost is very small.
Alibaba Cloud was originally opened because the e-commerce server resources were redundant and the original customers were Taobao sellers. In order to better connect with the Taobao system, the Invoicing system took the lead. The emergence of Tencent Cloud is because Tencent has made painstaking efforts after the 3Q war and vigorously made an open platform. However, many developers have found that "there is no ability to establish a platform for serving users in a short period of time, and we will do cloud services." Alibaba Cloud and Tencent Cloud are all started from small and medium-sized enterprises such as sellers or developers. Their common features are: high cost of sales, low affordability, but limited IT costs and capabilities, and cloud computing. There is a natural need to acquire such customers, nothing is more appropriate than building an ecosystem.
Even today, Alibaba Cloud and Tencent Cloud have strong ecological elements. For example, Tencent Cloud's customers, many of which are Tencent's invested companies, and many of them are partners of Tencent's pan-entertainment ecosystem. Because of this, Tencent Cloud has already taken the lead in vertical industries such as video and games. It is hard to imagine that Ali-based companies will deploy the system to Tencent Cloud. This is not a team, but a comprehensive consideration of cost, technology, data, security and even strategic aspects.
The cloud computing platform is also an ecological resource output window. The value of Tencent Cloud is not just computing services. Developers join Tencent Cloud to have Tencent's resources in social relationships, game entertainment, digital content, mobile payment, etc., as well as high concurrency and security. The technical capabilities in the field of streaming media, and even the experience of Tencent.
2. Cloud computing is unlikely to be profitable in the early stage, and the return period is long and long.
Cloud computing requires a lot of investment in IT infrastructure, computing resources such as computer room bandwidth, server storage, and software systems, all of which require a lot of money. However, a cloud computing platform can't be fully loaded as soon as it is built. There must be resources left idle. Such expenses are very big for startups, unless there is VC support. And even if there is enough capital investment in the early stage, the cloud computing business needs to get a return, and even profit, it also takes a long cycle, because to B itself is a slow-heating industry, Alibaba Cloud began to do in 2009, ushered in more than 100% High-speed growth is a thing of 2016, and it is still losing money - of course, Tencent Cloud is also losing money.
At present, China's cloud computing market is somewhat similar to video sites. If there is only one player, it will soon be profitable - so there are many mergers in 2017, and the quick merger will soon be profitable. However, players with a lot of giants in the market will have a price war, and everyone can't make a profit. For the wealthy giants, this is nothing, because cloud computing is a strategic business for them, the primary goal is not profit, compared to games, advertising and other business cloud computing earned slow money. The value of cloud computing, Ma Huateng gave the definition: "Ecosystem basic services", is an ecological infrastructure, will naturally focus on strategy, not seeking profit or even subsidies.
3. Cloud computing is not a single technology, but the integration of multiple technologies.
Cloud computing is not a technology, but the integration of multiple technologies.
As a computing infrastructure, cloud computing platforms must have the capabilities of stability, security, and high speed. The giant business is mature, it has dozens of businesses, serving hundreds of millions of users every day, and has experienced the test of extreme scenes, such as Tmall double 11, WeChat Spring Festival red envelope, which means that they provide stability in IT infrastructure services. , security and high speed capabilities.
The cloud computing business is different from the consumer-grade business. The former is for customers with very personalized needs, while the latter is for users with more standard requirements. Therefore, the cloud computing platform needs to provide supporting services. In fact, cloud computing The essence is the service economy. To provide ancillary services, you also need to invest a lot of resources, and the giants are more likely to do well.
In addition, cloud computing is inextricably linked to technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, the Internet of Things, and even communications. To provide public and integrated cloud services, you must have comprehensive technical capabilities. Only the giants will be deployed on multiple technologies at the same time. For example, Ali has the first investment of 100 billion yuan in Dharma Institute to do the underlying technology research and development, Baidu in AI, automatic driving to save money, Tencent has also set up various laboratories, research hospital. Their forward-looking layout in technology will eventually translate into the power or product of cloud computing.
It can be seen that cloud computing will become a giant market, not because cloud computing must be internationalized, but by the essential characteristics of cloud computing. The foreign cloud computing market has become the Chinese meal of Amazon, Microsoft and Google. At present, there are such signs in the country. The same story is re-enacted, and the logic behind it is the same.
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