Viewpoint: The inventory of 40 million air conditioners is not terrible, but the company is not looking at it.
The air-conditioning industry is due to the market rules of the off-season season, which in turn causes inventory in the off-season to prepare for the upcoming peak season. However, once such stocks are higher than the industry's affordability, or there is no expected sales in the peak season, the trapped villages often become the pain of the industry. Some companies that are not operating properly will suffer losses. In the history of the air-conditioning industry, there have been enterprises that have closed down, so the inventory problem is a life-and-death problem in the air-conditioning industry, and enterprises cannot turn a blind eye.
On March 14, the refrigeration and air-conditioning industry research institute industry released the news online, and the industry inventory will climb to a high of 40 million units in March. In fact, in the professional opinion, the industry online data is already too small, the actual inventory has reached 40 million sets before the Spring Festival.
The arguments in the workshop are somewhat surprising. It is rumored that at the end of February, the inventory of the air-conditioning industry has reached more than 45 million sets, but the capacity and market of some small and medium-sized brands are not of concern to mainstream companies in the industry. Therefore, being ignored is obvious. Industry analysts believe that although 45 million sets will not be, but never less than 40 million sets is also a conservative view.
As for how much inventory is in the industry right now, there is actually no standard answer. On the one hand, the angle of statistical data, or the source of data is different, some are based on shipments, some are inferred from the data of compressor manufacturers; on the other hand, inventory data itself is a dynamic, there will be some changes at any time. If the deadline is not the same, the difference will be great. Moreover, on the eve of the peak season, hoarding inventory is the basic law of air-conditioning marketing.
Whether it is the industry online, it will jump to more than 40 million sets at the end of March, or 45 million sets learned by other data companies. In short, it is an indisputable fact that the industry stocks have reached a relatively high level. If you count more than 45 million sets of exaggerated data, it is once again a record high.
The industry has high inventory, in fact, the industry is not unexpected. On the one hand, the manufacturing capacity of domestic air-conditioning enterprises is continuously improving, and the total production capacity has exceeded 120 million sets of global demand. The release of production capacity is the most basic business demand of manufacturers; on the other hand, The more aggressive targets of the manufacturers, Gree plan 50 million sets, the United States plans 40 million sets, Haier is said to double to 20 million sets, Oaks at least 16 million sets, TCL announced 10 million sets in 2017, 2018 will be more than this Less?
The mainstream brands in the industry are like this, as are the new small brands. Everyone wants to make more money when the market is good. Maybe there is no such store after this village. This kind of climbing target and matching high production capacity will definitely be trapped in high stocks once it is implemented.
If the high inventory of the industry is taken care of, the result will not need to be said, it will definitely intensify competition in the market. Industry professionals should clearly remember that after the end of the 2014 cold year, air-conditioning inventory once exceeded 40 million sets, which led to Gree's action to clean up the industry, for the first time launched its historical price war, which continued until around May of the year.
Then, in 2018, will the air-conditioning industry still have a price war caused by inventory? This depends on the ability of the market to digest inventories this year and the changes in the overall economic environment. First, if the weather is very hot, it will definitely form a hot season in the peak season, which can alleviate and digest the inventory pressure. Secondly, what is the trend of the policy of suppressing real estate? If there is no new suppression policy, the real estate will remain relatively stable, and the inventory pressure will also be It will be relatively slower; the third is to see whether the mainstream manufacturers will have some aggressive sales policies.
But no matter what, the huge inventory that has been formed is undoubtedly the Damocles sword hanging over the air-conditioning industry. Therefore, air-conditioning manufacturers still have to be cautious and try to resolve their inventory pressure as soon as possible. Otherwise, once your inventory is not digested during the peak season, there will be greater market pressure in the coming year. Although it is still relatively early to say that, as a trader in the market, it is like a master in the chess game. At least, you must see a few moves in advance in order to have a chance to win.
Some people also attribute the high inventory to the entry of some small brands, which is the end of the cart. It is not difficult to find that on the one hand, the amount of these small brands is extremely limited, and they do not have much accumulated. They cannot keep up with Gree and the United States. On the other hand, many small brands have no production capacity and are OEM in stock enterprises. Production (OEM), their increments have actually been reflected in the stock companies. New small brands can enter because they have the basis and space for their survival. This is the problem that the industry needs to think about. After all, this is the typical market regulation. Don't attribute the increase in inventory to these new small brands.
For the huge inventory of the air-conditioning industry, before the arrival of the traditional peak season, it is not terrible. Perhaps the fear is that the company is self-righteous, thinking that it is a superman, will not be punished by the laws of the market, playing the adventure game of how bold and how productive the people are. It is this kind of disregard of the laws of the market that there is a huge risk.
Perhaps it is the best strategy at the moment to plan ahead!
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