Recently, Su Xiaoshi, president of DuPont China, said that the company’s thin-film battery production line in Shenzhen has not been profitable due to various factors such as the market, but DuPont will continue to increase investment in this area and wait for the return period of investment. 's arrival It is reported that Suntech, the giant of the domestic photovoltaic industry, recently shut down its thin-film battery production line for various reasons.
Senior investment researcher Li Shengmao believes that the current monopoly of crystalline silicon battery products in the solar cell industry is still stable, the competitive advantages of thin-film solar cell products are still far from being demonstrated, and the profitability of thin-film battery companies built by DuPont in China is weak. In reasonable terms. At present, the profitability of thin-film solar cell products is mainly affected by the scale of production capacity and product prices.
The capacity of photovoltaic thin film batteries has a significant impact on the profitability of the business. The photovoltaic industry is a typical scale economy industry. Subdivided industries such as polysilicon, silicon wafers, and photovoltaic cells and modules all have such characteristics. Obviously, only when the scale of production capacity of a company reaches a certain level can its cost control capability be strengthened. The "2010-2015 China Solar Photovoltaic Power Industry Investment Analysis and Forecast Report" issued by China Investment Advisors pointed out that DuPont's thin film battery production line in China has only about 50 MW of production capacity, and it has just been put into production. The scale of this production capacity has obviously not reached the scale. The inherent requirements of the economy, so the business's profitability is weak.
Li Shengmao pointed out that the price of thin-film batteries has been at a low level for a long time, which has directly compressed the profit margin of thin-film solar cell manufacturers including DuPont. On the one hand, since the price of polysilicon dropped below US$100/kg during the financial crisis, the cost advantage of thin-film solar cells has been greatly weakened, and its price increase lacks necessary support. Crystalline silicon batteries have obvious substitution effects on thin-film batteries, which means that the higher the production cost of crystalline silicon batteries, the greater the market demand for thin-film batteries, and the current situation is just the opposite, so thin-film batteries can only be in a relative position for a long time. Lower price.
On the other hand, the current market demand for thin-film batteries is relatively limited, plus this is DuPont's first production of thin-film solar cells in China, so most of the customers are holding a trial mentality in the purchase, in order to establish long-term relationship with these customers. , Enterprises will also take the initiative to profit, in fact, this is a marketing strategy. The attenuation of the photoelectric conversion efficiency of thin-film batteries is rather severe. Customers are very concerned about this shortcoming. Before large-scale procurement of thin-film batteries, they will purchase a small number of products for trial. After the trial period ends, customers will really decide whether to purchase or not. So companies like DuPont need a process to be profitable.
Zhang Yanlin, research director of China Investment Consulting Co., Ltd., pointed out that thin-film solar cells are mainly used for the roofs of buildings and commercial buildings. They integrate themselves with building materials and are essential materials for building low-carbon environment-friendly buildings. The potential market demand is huge. In addition, thin-film batteries can still generate electricity under low-light or scattered-light conditions, and their applicable conditions are relatively loose, which cannot be achieved by crystalline silicon batteries. In short, thin-film solar cells still have good prospects for development in the long run.
Senior investment researcher Li Shengmao believes that the current monopoly of crystalline silicon battery products in the solar cell industry is still stable, the competitive advantages of thin-film solar cell products are still far from being demonstrated, and the profitability of thin-film battery companies built by DuPont in China is weak. In reasonable terms. At present, the profitability of thin-film solar cell products is mainly affected by the scale of production capacity and product prices.
The capacity of photovoltaic thin film batteries has a significant impact on the profitability of the business. The photovoltaic industry is a typical scale economy industry. Subdivided industries such as polysilicon, silicon wafers, and photovoltaic cells and modules all have such characteristics. Obviously, only when the scale of production capacity of a company reaches a certain level can its cost control capability be strengthened. The "2010-2015 China Solar Photovoltaic Power Industry Investment Analysis and Forecast Report" issued by China Investment Advisors pointed out that DuPont's thin film battery production line in China has only about 50 MW of production capacity, and it has just been put into production. The scale of this production capacity has obviously not reached the scale. The inherent requirements of the economy, so the business's profitability is weak.
Li Shengmao pointed out that the price of thin-film batteries has been at a low level for a long time, which has directly compressed the profit margin of thin-film solar cell manufacturers including DuPont. On the one hand, since the price of polysilicon dropped below US$100/kg during the financial crisis, the cost advantage of thin-film solar cells has been greatly weakened, and its price increase lacks necessary support. Crystalline silicon batteries have obvious substitution effects on thin-film batteries, which means that the higher the production cost of crystalline silicon batteries, the greater the market demand for thin-film batteries, and the current situation is just the opposite, so thin-film batteries can only be in a relative position for a long time. Lower price.
On the other hand, the current market demand for thin-film batteries is relatively limited, plus this is DuPont's first production of thin-film solar cells in China, so most of the customers are holding a trial mentality in the purchase, in order to establish long-term relationship with these customers. , Enterprises will also take the initiative to profit, in fact, this is a marketing strategy. The attenuation of the photoelectric conversion efficiency of thin-film batteries is rather severe. Customers are very concerned about this shortcoming. Before large-scale procurement of thin-film batteries, they will purchase a small number of products for trial. After the trial period ends, customers will really decide whether to purchase or not. So companies like DuPont need a process to be profitable.
Zhang Yanlin, research director of China Investment Consulting Co., Ltd., pointed out that thin-film solar cells are mainly used for the roofs of buildings and commercial buildings. They integrate themselves with building materials and are essential materials for building low-carbon environment-friendly buildings. The potential market demand is huge. In addition, thin-film batteries can still generate electricity under low-light or scattered-light conditions, and their applicable conditions are relatively loose, which cannot be achieved by crystalline silicon batteries. In short, thin-film solar cells still have good prospects for development in the long run.
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