The advent of the Pokemon GO game has completely ignited the upsurge of AR (augmented reality), and its application and business model have also received much attention. Microsoft's HoloLens is currently the most desirable AR device, but it can be widely accepted by users, depending on the development. Under this wave of AR boom, the first thing that will emerge is the mobile devices such as smartphones.
AR industry development
AR is the same as VR (Virtual Reality), allowing users to enter a virtual world like a real one. The difference is that the VR image is completely virtual, and the AR has virtual text and images overlapping the real world image.
The AR has two common processing modes: the transparent lens of the AR glasses allows the user to directly view the external image, and then stack the virtual image through the projection method, or use the panel plus the camera module to obtain the camera module. The actual image that can be seen by the user is processed and processed, and the real image is added to the consumer through the panel to achieve the AR effect, which is common in smart phones, tablet machines and handheld game machines.
Microsoft's main HoloLens product uses MR (mixed reality) technology. MR refers to a technique in which "a device has the functions of AR and VR" or "a scene is switched between AR and VR". Microsoft's main MR is defined as "the combination of reality and virtual world", which can provide both virtual and real images. HoloLens is an MR device. However, this is no different from the definition of AR. Microsoft just created a new word for its creativity.
The smart glasses industry has been quiet for a while since Google Glass temporarily withdrew from the market. Until recently, there were follow-up news, including HoloLens, Magic Leap, Recon and Solos.
HoloLens is Microsoft's recently launched wearable device. HoloLens uses transmissive imaging technology, a microdisplay that emits light through LCoS (liquid crystal overlay), which passes through the optical lens and projects the image to the front of the eye. Defined by imaging characteristics, it should be classified in the scope of AR glasses and belong to products similar to Google Glass. The biggest difference with Google Glass is that Google Glass is more oriented towards life applications, and HoloLens also includes professional applications and commercial uses.
In the past one or two years, Magic Leap has become a focus of attention due to the high investment from major companies such as Google, Qualcomm and Alibaba, and the stunning display of the film has become a highly anticipated star in the market. However, the nature of the investment that Magic Leap receives is an upfront investment in future possibilities, rather than the object of recycling in the near future. Magic Leap uses "Dynamic DigiTIzed Lightfield Signal" (Dynamic DigiTIzed Lightfield Signal), but even the prototype has not yet been asked, and it is difficult to launch a formal product within five years.
Supported by Intel and Kopin, Recon and Solos are aimed at the sports market, providing users with reference information such as maps displayed in head-mounted devices. In addition, some manufacturers apply the functions of AR glasses in the industry, providing graphical and textual guidance to users, and can provide relevant instructions or vocational training at work.
Microsoft HoloLens Strategy Analysis
â– Microsoft will be established
Windows Holographic platform
In addition to vigorously promoting its own HoloLens, Microsoft is more optimistic about the future VR application, launching the Windows Holographic platform, and will become the basis of cross-device convergence through Windows 10, allowing various AR and VR devices to be connected together.
Windows Holographic has holographic imaging capabilities, including framework integration for UI and perceptual applications. The purpose of this platform is to provide a developer development environment to meet the growing demand for AR and VR products in the future.
Therefore, Microsoft hopes to integrate the development work with Windows 10 as the base device, so that developers can apply it to various devices supporting Windows Holographic as long as they are developed on Windows 10, maximizing the benefits and increasing the support devices. Application value.
Microsoft's action is based on two points. First of all, this will attract more developers to provide application services for HoloLens and enrich the functionality of HoloLens. Secondly, the status of Windows 10 can be consolidated under the development trend of AR and VR. Such actions are expected to attract many vendors to join the Windows Holographic platform.
â– HoloLens' development and dilemma
HoloLens is a product that Microsoft has high hopes for and is considered to be the product that replaced Google Glass as the leader in the smart glasses industry. But it wasn't until 2016 that Microsoft announced a developer version that sold for $3,000. The time-to-market and related information for the consumer version has not yet been announced. As far as the existing information is concerned, the difference between the developer version and the consumer version is not too great. The reason why Microsoft has been reluctant to announce the consumer version of HoloLens may be because there are some problems that remain to be solved.
The most direct problem is the price. Google Glass's developer version is priced at $1,500 and is considered too expensive. The HoloLens developer version is priced one-fold more than Google Glass. It is expected that the consumer version will not be too cheap, which will make HoloLens is hindering the development of the consumer market. Therefore, HoloLens will develop into professional functions or business applications at the same time.
Content and application services are also a big issue. Microsoft must let HoloLens have a functional service worth $3,000. Otherwise, the product will only face a miserable sales volume when it goes public, which will cause consumers to doubt the product and hurt the brand image. The experience gap between the show video and the actual effect is also a must for HoloLens, and the effect of overlapping the virtual image and the actual image needs to be further optimized.
Finally, HoloLens needs to maintain market attention to its products. If the final sale of the product is not released, the enthusiasm of the consumer will eventually cool down, and HoloLens will follow the footsteps of the suspension of the Google Glass project.
â– HoloLens technology and key components
In 2016, Microsoft revealed some of the HoloLens component specifications, including the Intel Atom x5 Z8100 and the Intel 8086h custom GPU. Although it is a customized component, it is not a particularly high-end choice. It is worth noting that the CPU Compatible with 64-bit, but Windows 10 is only 32-bit, which also shows the possibility of future expansion.
Other notable components should be considered the two lenses and LCoS optomechanics modules responsible for imaging, and this is the most expensive part of HoloLens, initially estimated at over $500. A total of 6 batteries can provide 16,500mWh of power, almost 10 times that of a typical smart phone, but in terms of HoloLens performance requirements and usage scenarios, I am afraid there will still be power shortages.
As far as the current known specifications are concerned, the material cost is about 800-1,000 US dollars, and the actual consumer version may replace some components to improve some of the problems encountered so far, and the material cost may increase. More than $1,000. Based on this estimate, the actual sales price may start at $1,999.
The most critical components of HoloLens are light machines and lenses. HoloLens and Google Glass's optomechanics use LCoS. The main reason is that this technology has high light efficiency and relatively low cost, but LCoS also has problems such as poor contrast and large size of optomechanics. Therefore, manufacturers are also actively looking for alternatives, such as DLP technology monopolized by Texas Instruments.
DLP is small in size and good in comparison, but the cost is high, and it is completely monopolized by Texas Instruments, which reduces the willingness of manufacturers. In contrast, LCoS has Japan's Sony and JVC, Taiwan's Lijing and Jujing, as well as China's crystal and Yangtze River Communications and other related manufacturers, AR glasses manufacturers are more likely to find suitable components and prices.
AR business opportunity consumers are the key
From the perspective of development within 3 to 5 years, the development direction of AR glasses is divided into three aspects: general consumer market with professional application function, sports application market, industrial and warehousing applications, but the latter two will face smaller market and use. The problem of low willingness is not easy to see in the short term.
The consumer market will be the target of AR glasses' recent market potential and good development. This is why Microsoft will choose to launch HoloLens. However, due to the high price of HoloLens, consumers may be more difficult to accept in the early stage, so Microsoft will let HoloLens also provide some professional application functions, expand more applications, and initially target the top consumers and professionals.
Consumers' patience is limited, and between 2016 and 2018, VR devices are expected to fully capture the attention of consumers. HoloLens will be a good time to launch by 2020. If you delay for a long time, you may get a fever.
The issues that HoloLens needs to address include price, content application and actual experience. From the developer's version pricing, HoloLens is likely to sell for more than $1,999, which is difficult to attract consumers unless Microsoft is willing to absorb the cost and lower the price below $1,000. Otherwise, the solution can only improve the content. Convince consumers by applying value.
In terms of content, Microsoft has set a few application development directions for HoloLens: daily functions, professional and commercial applications. In order to find content developers, Microsoft also launched the Windows Holographic platform. But in any case, it takes time to find developers, and it takes time to develop application services. Whether HoloLens can meet consumer needs depends on how many valuable application features HoloLens can put into during this time.
Finally, there is a certain gap between the actual experience and the propaganda film. The point is that Microsoft can shorten this gap to a small extent. Microsoft has also developed an external device called "Sparse Peripheral Displays", which hopes to achieve the display area expansion effect through the above LED array, and these improvements also take time and increase costs.
Therefore, Microsoft's mission is not to create a perfect HoloLens, but to achieve the balance of these issues in a limited time, to launch a device that consumers are willing to use and purchase is the focus, otherwise HoloLens will become Google Like Glass, after a delay, simply give up the product launch.
Mobile device AR application takes the lead in development
The popularity of AR glasses will take some time, but the AR application function has gradually developed on mobile devices such as smart phones and tablets. Nintendo's AR mobile game Pokémon GO has been launched in July 2016, and there are more AR creative apps appearing in mobile devices. The development of these application software may drive consumers' demand for AR functions, which in turn affects Vendors are willing to develop software on AR glasses and even port these application services directly to AR glasses. This method is also a way to solve the current lack of AR glasses application services.
(The author of this article is a researcher at the Tuoba Industrial Research Institute)
Dust Explosion Proof Motor,Explosion Proof Induction Ac Motor,Special Explosion-Proof Motor,Dust Explosion Protection Motors
Yizheng Beide Material Co., Ltd. , https://www.beidevendor.com